May 19, 2024

Price analysis 10/30: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, ADA, DOGE, TON

Bitcoin’s reluctance to give up ground has attracted strong buying in select altcoins.

Bitcoin (BTC) price climbed by 15% last week and 10.45% the week before. The S&P 500 Index dropped 2.53% last week and 2.39% the week before. This shows that Bitcoin has decoupled from the S&P 500 Index in the short term and may chart its own course.

However, the path higher may not be easy. The Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Nov. 1 may cause some volatility, but it will li be short-lived as no surprises are expected. CME’s FedWatch Tool projects a 98% probability that rates will remain unchanged.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

A large part of the gains in Bitcoin have been fuelled by expectations that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the near future. Any adverse news in this regard may prove to be a major setback for the bulls. When traders start chasing prices higher, it increases the risk of a short-term pullback.

What are the important support levels on Bitcoin and altcoins that need to hold for the sentiment to remain bullish? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) remains in a strong downtrend. The price is close to the strong support zone between 4,050 and 4,100.

SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView

The sharp fall of the past few days pushed the relative strength index (RSI) into the oversold territory, suggesting that a pullback may be possible. On the upside, the bears are expected to sell near the 20-day exponential moving average (4,255).

If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will then again try to sink the price below the support zone. If they succeed, the index could plummet toward 3,800. This negative view will invalidate in the near term if the price rises and sustains above the 20-day EMA.

U.S. dollar index price analysis

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rebounded off the 50-day simple moving average (105) on Oct. 24, indicating that lower levels are attracting buyers.

DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rising moving averages indicate advantage to buyers but the negative divergence on the RSI suggests that the bullish momentum may be weakening. That could keep the index range-bound between 105.36 and 107.35 for some time.

If buyers maintain the price above the 20-day EMA (106.23), the bulls will attempt to drive the index above 107.35. If they succeed, the index may surge toward 111. If bears want to prevent the upside, they will have to drag and sustain the price back below 105.36. The index may then fall to 104.50.

Bitcoin price analysis

After the sharp rally, Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase between $33,390 and $35,380. This is a positive sign as it suggests that the bulls are in no urgency to book profits aggressively.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Although the overbought levels on the RSI warrant caution, the rising moving averages suggest that bulls remain in charge. If buyers drive the price above $35,280, the BTC/USDT pair could surge toward $40,000. This level is likely to act as a formidable resistance.

On the way down, if bears sink the price below $33,390, the pair risks a drop to $32,400 and then to $31,000. This zone is likely to witness solid buying by the bulls because if it cracks, the selling could intensify and the pair may plummet to $28,143.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) has been maintaining above the breakout level of $1,746 but the bulls have failed to extend the recovery. This suggests that demand dries up at higher levels.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The ETH/USDT pair may stay range-bound between $1,746 and $1,865 for a few days. The rising moving averages and the RSI in the overbought territory indicate that the bulls have the upper hand.

If buyers kick the price above $1,865, the pair could rally to $2,000. The bears are likely to guard this level with vigor.

The important support on the downside is $1,746 and then the 20-day EMA ($1,705). Sellers will be back in the driver’s seat if they sink and sustain the price below the 20-day EMA.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) has been stuck inside a large range between $235 and $203 for the past several days. The rising 20-day EMA ($219) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that bulls have a slight edge.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price sustains the rebound off $223, the bulls will again try to shove the price above the overhead resistance at $235. If they can pull it off, it will indicate the start of a sustained recovery to $250 and eventually to $265.

Meanwhile, the bears are likely to have other plans. They will try to yank the price back below the 20-day EMA. Such a move will suggest that the BNB/USDT pair may extend its stay inside the range for a while longer.

XRP price analysis

After staying in a tight range between $0.56 and the 20-day EMA ($0.53) for the past few days, XRP (XRP) cleared the hurdle on Oct. 30.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the overbought zone indicate that the bulls are at an advantage. There is a minor resistance at $0.59. If bulls overcome this barrier, the XRP/USDT pair is likely to climb to $0.66.

However, the bears are unlikely to give up easily. They will try to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, it may trap several aggressive bulls. The pair may then remain stuck between $0.46 and $0.56 for a few more days.

Solana price analysis

In an uptrend, the corrections are shallow and short-lived. That is what happened in Solana (SOL). After a minor pullback, the bulls have asserted their supremacy.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The SOL/USDT pair resumed its uptrend on Oct. 30 with a break above $33.90. The bulls will next try to push the price to $38.79. This level is expected to act as a major resistance but if buyers bulldoze their way through, the pair may reach $48.

The important support to watch on the downside is $31. If the pair slips below this level, it will suggest that the bulls may be dumping their positions in a hurry. That could pull the price down to the 20-day EMA ($28,73).

Related: CME becomes second-largest Bitcoin futures exchange as open interest surges

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) has been sustaining above the breakout level of $0.28 for the past few days but the bulls are finding it difficult to clear the overhead hurdle at $0.30.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Still, a positive sign is that the bulls have not given up much ground from the overhead resistance. This suggests that the buyers have kept up the pressure. If they overcome the roadblock at $0.30, the ADA/USDT pair could start a rally to $0.32 and thereafter to $0.34.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from $0.30, it will suggest that the bears are aggressively defending the level. The pair may then swing between $0.28 and $0.30 for some time. A break and close below the 20-day EMA ($0.27) will tilt the advantage back in favor of the bears.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the $0.07 mark.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A minor positive is that the bulls are buying the dips below $0.07. This suggests that the sentiment has changed from selling on rallies to buying on dips. The bulls will then again try to overcome the obstacle at $0.07. If they can pull it off, the DOGE/USDT pair could start its northward march to $0.08.

The important support to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($0.06). If this support cracks, the pair could dive to the solid support at $0.06.

Toncoin price analysis

Toncoin (TON) broke below the moving averages on Oct. 27 but the bears could not build upon the advantage. This suggests that selling dries up at lower levels.

TON/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($2.07) has flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers. If the price rises above the moving averages, the bulls will try to kick the TON/USDT pair above $2.31. If they do that, the pair may start its journey to $2.59.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the moving averages, it will suggest that bears are trying to gain the upper hand. A break below $2 could clear the path for a decline to $1.89.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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